Thoughts on what Southern California’s future could look like

From the early religious prophets through 16th century French physician Nostradamus (his first name was Michel, though no one ever seems to use it), to 19th and 20th century futurist authors Jules Verne and George Orwell, on up to the Psychic Hotline of infomercial fame, predictions of future events have found enthusiastic audiences.

The questions put to the crystal ball and tarot cards aren’t just about personal happiness, either. Looking ahead is as important to private businesses and public utilities as it is to star-crossed lovers. As the provider of about half the water used by urban Southern California’s 18 million people, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California needs to plan ahead, albeit using more scientific methods.

In this, Metropolitan’s 75th anniversary year, the district is given to contemplations of the future as well as reflections on the past. If Metropolitan’s founders would be stunned to see what their Colorado River Aqueduct has helped make of the region in 2004, what might we see on a magic carpet ride over the region 75 years from now?

In 2079, one wonders, will everyone except the rich have artificial lawns, with even the wealthy displaying only patches or pots of sod in the manner that the affluent might show off an orchid collection or a koi pond today? “And this is my prized Kentucky blue grass.”

Seventy-five years from now, will we still wash our dishes, clothes, cars and even ourselves with water, or will there be water-free systems for sterilizing and dry-cleaning? Will our swimming pools be required to have covers to prevent evaporation, and our roofs have systems to collect rainwater?

Actually, many of those futuristic technologies are here and saving water today, and they probably will become more prevalent—possibly mandatory—in coming decades as the state’s and region’s populations grow, but water supplies remain fairly static.

“Not too long ago, the typical household toilet used about five gallons for every flush,” says Metropolitan Senior Resource Specialist Bill McDonnell, of the conservation programs section. “Today, almost all of our toilets use only about 1½ gallons per flush, and that’s still creeping downward.”

The Wall Street Journal ran a front-page article recently on the growing popularity of urinals in home bathrooms, McDonnell notes, adding that the cutting edge of that trend would be waterless urinals. “They already have waterless urinals at the Rose Bowl, the Long Beach Aquarium and here at Metropolitan headquarters—so why shouldn’t they be in homes, too? I bet in 75 years they’ll be commonplace.”

Waterless toilets are already a reality, too. Apparently (after reviewing a few Web sites that were unintentionally humorous), they electrically incinerate the waste, converting it into garden compost. If you’re in the backwoods, it would seem that a big battery is required for the process. One brand offered a beautiful raspberry-colored model with an oak seat, and it seemed that a rake was included as standard equipment.

The bath isn’t the only room in the house that’s getting attention; kitchens and laundry rooms are also in the R&D crosshairs. But appliance manufacturers also are hesitant to look nearly a century ahead, when they’re busy designing, manufacturing and marketing water- and energy-saving models for next week.

“Seventy-five years?!” exclaims David Steiner, vice president government affairs in Washington, D.C., for the Maytag Corporation, famous for its clothes washers, dishwashers and other appliances. “The next 10-to-20 years alone are going to be pretty dramatic for us as an industry; I think we’re just starting to scratch the surface.”

Yet Steiner also notes that the technological advances and water conservation you’d expect in a futuristic society are here now, and more are on the way, as regulatory agencies require greater water- and energy efficiency in appliances.

June Cleaver washed Ward’s, Wally’s and Beaver’s jeans (though I really don’t recall Ward ever wearing jeans) in a machine that used up to 40 gallons per load. By comparison, Steiner said that today’s efficient machines use only about 22 gallons for a large load.

“Tomorrow’s models may offer bigger water savings but even larger capacity,” Steiner said. “Our Neptune TL top loader model that’s just reached the market has a greater capacity than any top loader out there, but uses half the water of the average top loader. There are some amazing things happening now; 75 years from now I can’t imagine.”

John Koeller is a Yorba Linda-based professional engineer and water conservation consultant, who we caught just before he left to advise clients, who range from Seattle to Mexico, Australia, Turkey and Sweden.

“I think we may see more central laundry facilities—people won’t necessarily be doing this in their own homes,” Koeller speculated. “Forty years ago people did all their laundry at home; now, they send everything out. Consequently, whether appliances change or not, there’ll be less water and energy use in that industry because those big commercial laundries have technologies that are advanced far beyond what we see in the home units. Big laundries recycle their water—it’s still too expensive today to have home recycling units on our washers.”

Speaking of which, might at-home washing of your vehicles (whatever they may be) be banned by 2079, requiring owners to use car washes where wash water is recycled? “Maybe cars won’t need to be washed,” Koeller suggested. “Maybe they’ll just be dusted, if paints and lacquers are improved to the point where dirt won’t stick to them. They’re already making toilets like that—special ceramics.

Theoretically they don’t get dirty, you don’t need a brush…but of course you still do!”
Koeller applied his clothes-washing theory to the home kitchen of the future, as well. “I think most food consumed in the house will be fully prepared outside and brought in; people will eat in restaurants or get carry-out, which of course we see more and more of every day right now. When they buy food outside, there’s very little water required in the home to prepare it, so there are fewer dishes to wash. We may even see smaller dishwashers.”

“And” he continued, “with all these folks eating out, we notice that restaurants are one of the larger users of water in the commercial sector. New technologies and products will reduce that to a fraction of what it is today.”

With the major strides that have been made—and continue to be made—in indoor conservation, the majority of household water use is now outside the home, and that’s where conservation attention is turning. Drip irrigation and satellite- and weather-controlled sprinklers are already available, and undoubtedly will be commonplace by 2075.